A GIS-based approach to compare economic damages of fluvial flooding in the Neckar River basin under current conditions and future scenarios

Abstract Fluvial floods can cause significant damages and are expected to increase in magnitude frequency throughout the twenty-first century due global warming. Alongside hazard characteristics, damage potentials depend on exposure vulnerability, which changing wake of socio-economic developments. In context continuously evolving damage-causing factors, assessments future changes flood increasingly asked for by decision-makers risk management. This study addresses this need (a) providing a systematic review contemporary assessment approaches quantitatively compare direct economic losses from fluvial flooding under current conditions (b) combining reviewed an applicable methodology is used case quantify Neckar River basin southern Germany. Therefore, scoping supported geographic information systems (GIS) performed. The subsequent prognoses average annual area century. produces valid results with regards precipitation data, whereas absence verification data makes validation projected scenarios more difficult. To account uncertainties surrounding these projections, nascent qualitative confidence estimation introduced reflect strength knowledge underlying methodology.